The SPD parliamentary group aims to draw more heavily on productivity gains resulting from the use of artificial intelligence to fund the social welfare state. The proposed AI tax thus targets precisely those additional revenues that companies are expected to generate through automation, digitalization, and more efficient production. The SPD justifies this move by citing potential shortfalls in income tax and social security contributions should AI replace human labor. At the same time, Chancellor Friedrich Merz is banking on AI, higher productivity, and investment to put the German economy back on a growth trajectory. This is precisely where the contradiction arises: the state seeks to skim off additional revenue from growth before that growth has even materialized.
An AI tax targets the very area where growth is expected to emerge
The SPD explicitly speaks of tapping into new sources of income and value creation for the welfare state. These include productivity gains driven by AI, capital income, and a potential AI dividend. While there is no specific tax rate yet, the political direction is clear: increased value creation through AI is intended to generate additional revenue for the state.
Yet, higher productivity is precisely the central challenge facing the German economy. Companies must produce more with fewer workers to remain internationally competitive. AI can accelerate processes, cut costs, and enable new business models; consequently, the federal government envisions it driving investment and growth. However, an AI tax would place an additional burden on the very economic success generated by these investments.
Merz aims to generate growth through AI – the SPD wants to profit from it
Chancellor Friedrich Merz favors a different sequence of priorities. He calls first for increased investment, higher productivity, and economic growth. At the IHK (Chamber of Commerce) conference, he articulated the principle: “growth first, then distribution—not the other way around.” Furthermore, the federal government explicitly links AI to job creation and enhanced competitiveness.
The SPD, by contrast, is already focusing on the distribution of anticipated productivity gains. Yet, companies are the ones bearing the initial costs of this transformation. They invest in software, computing power, data, training, and new production facilities. If a project fails, the company absorbs the loss. If it succeeds, the SPD’s plans call for the additional revenue to contribute more significantly to funding the social welfare state.
An AI tax could weaken investment incentives
This alters the economic calculus. The more the state siphons off additional productivity gains, the lower the return on successful investments becomes. This distinction is particularly relevant for internationally mobile technology projects. Companies compare locations based on energy prices, regulation, taxes, and expected returns.
Germany already starts at a disadvantage in this regard. The Federal Ministry of Finance has projected the nominal tax burden on corporations for 2025 at 30.13 percent. This keeps Germany among the high-tax locations internationally. The federal government actually intends to gradually reduce this burden to make investment more attractive; imposing an additional levy on AI-driven productivity gains runs counter to that goal.
SPD Turns Technological Progress into a Revenue Source
The need to fund social security systems is undisputed. However, this gives rise to a fundamental question of economic policy: Should Germany foster productivity gains so that companies grow—subsequently generating higher profits, wages, and tax revenues—or should the state view the productivity gain itself as a new source of funding?
With its proposal, the SPD clearly opts for the latter approach. The AI tax is intended to tap into additional revenue generated by technological progress. Yet, in doing so, it risks undermining the very effect AI is supposed to deliver in terms of economic policy: increased productivity, higher investment, and ultimately, greater growth. Instead of allowing progress to generate results first, the SPD is already planning to tax the additional gains it produces.
Author: Blackout News
Sources: Golem (05.09.26) – SPD Fraktion im Bundestag (04.09.26) – eco (04.09.26)