In early July 2026, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency warns of sharply rising costs associated with an energy transition that excludes nuclear power. Global electricity demand could nearly double by 2050 as the transport, industrial, and data center sectors require more electricity. At the same time, coal and gas are set to be phased out as backup sources, meaning grids, storage systems, and flexible consumers will have to compensate for larger supply gaps. New nuclear power plants could limit these system costs, yet a lack of capital, a shortage of skilled workers, and weak supply chains are hindering the necessary expansion.
Nuclear Energy Agency Sees Costs Beyond Power Plants
Wind and solar installations often generate electricity cheaply, yet their generation costs do not account for the entire supply system. When output drops due to calm weather, other facilities, storage systems, or imports must step in, as generation and consumption must always be balanced. Consequently, as their share of the energy mix rises, so do expenditures for grids, balancing energy, reserves, and interventions in consumption.
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The Nuclear Energy Agency therefore views nuclear power as a dispatchable complement to wind, solar, and hydropower. Reactors provide predictable, low-carbon electricity over long periods, thereby reducing the need for backup capacity. However, the model does not exclude renewables; instead, it seeks a low-cost mix of various technologies. Without dispatchable power, consumers would have to finance more storage, grid infrastructure, and flexibility programs.
Investments would need to rise nearly twentyfold at times
However, the expansion target remains far removed from current reality. Global nuclear capacity stands at around 400 gigawatts, while 38 nations support tripling this figure by 2050. Under the NEA’s “trends” scenario, capacity grows to only 619 gigawatts. Only the “transformative” scenario reaches approximately 1,324 gigawatts—more than three times the current level.
In recent years, OECD countries have invested an average of twelve billion dollars annually in new reactors. Achieving the most ambitious scenario, however, would require an average of 143 billion dollars per year. In the 2030s, annual investment needs could even approach 200 billion dollars. Furthermore, the capacity under simultaneous construction would need to rise from around nine gigawatts to more than 40 gigawatts.
Skilled labor shortages and supply chain constraints limit nuclear power expansion
The Nuclear Energy Agency identifies a lack of personnel as a key hurdle. Many experts from the earlier construction boom have retired, a consequence of Western nations building few reactors over several decades. Consequently, there is currently a shortage of experienced planners, welders, construction managers, and specialists for safety-critical components. Manufacturers of large reactor pressure vessels also face capacity constraints. While China and Russia employ more standardized, serial construction methods, Western nations are wary of creating new strategic dependencies.
However, these findings do not apply uniformly to every country. Swiss models demonstrate how significantly factors such as hydropower, electricity trading, construction costs, and financing arrangements alter the outcome. ETH Zurich and the PSI generally consider new nuclear power plants uneconomical under current conditions. Yet, with state guarantees and lower construction costs, reactors could become part of the most cost-effective energy mix. In contrast, AEE Suisse’s energy storage plan identifies nuclear power as the cost-optimal choice only in scenarios of long-term isolation; where electricity trading is temporarily limited, flexible thermal power plants prove more cost-effective. Thus, the OECD analysis does not establish a universal price advantage but rather illustrates the costs associated with various system-level choices.
Author: Blackout News
Sources: NZZ (06.07.26) – S&P Global (06.07.26) – OECD NEA (02.07.26) – ETH Zürich (29.06.26) – aeesuisse (Stand:14.07.26)