The German government is reducing the energy tax by around 17 cents per liter for two months to provide relief to motorists facing high fuel prices. However, initial price fluctuations, past experience, and current studies reveal a key risk. The previously introduced 12 noon rule failed to deliver noticeable relief and, according to studies, even increased profit margins on gasoline. Furthermore, some of the new tax relief could end up being pocketed by oil companies and gas stations. As a result, millions of drivers may end up paying more with the new fuel discount than the policy promises. (zew: 27.04.26)
Fuel Discount with Uncertain Impact on Fuel Prices
Fuel prices rose significantly even before the program’s launch. This reduces the real benefit for drivers. Furthermore, there is no obligation to pass on the full tax cut. Therefore, the relief along the supply chain may be partially negated.
The Federal Cartel Office can only intervene in cases of concrete suspicion. However, it does not monitor every price change in advance. While consumers expect quick relief, suppliers retain considerable leeway. This is precisely where the central problem lies.
Experiences from 2022 cast a shadow over the new fuel price cap
The previous fuel discount demonstrates how limited the effectiveness of such measures can be. In 2022, the relief was initially passed on almost in full. Later, however, the pass-through declined significantly. Over the entire period, only around 87 percent of the tax reduction for diesel and about 71 percent for Super E10 reached consumers.
The effect was particularly weak in regions with little competition. There, suppliers were able to retain larger portions of the tax cut. Therefore, 2022 provides a clear warning signal for 2026. The new fuel price cap is launching under similar risks.
The 12 o’clock rule increases margins for gasoline
The 12 o’clock rule is further complicating matters. It was intended to regulate price changes and create transparency. However, studies by economic researchers show the opposite effect. Profit margins for gasoline increased by around 6 cents per liter.
While diesel reacted less clearly, the effect on premium gasoline remains significant. Suppliers can now implement price increases more precisely. At the same time, drivers lose flexibility when refueling. This increases suspicions that the promised relief is not reliably reaching its intended customers.
Politicians are considering new aid for drivers
Due to criticism, politicians are already discussing further measures. Reports mention an additional relief package for drivers. This shows how limited the interventions so far have been. At the same time, expectations for quick results are rising.
However, new aid does not automatically solve the underlying problem. Tax relief only helps if it translates into visible savings at the pump. Therefore, the fuel discount can only be effective if competition and regulation are in place. Otherwise, the providers will primarily benefit.
Relief decided at the pump
For drivers, the impact remains uncertain. The tax cut sounds straightforward, but the final price follows its own market rules. Past data, current price fluctuations, and higher margins reveal significant risks. Therefore, it is not the political decision that determines the outcome, but the price at the pump.
This case illustrates a familiar pattern. The government forgoes revenue, while consumers have no guarantee of full relief. At the same time, corporations can exploit additional loopholes. This is precisely why the 2026 fuel discount remains highly controversial.