Berlin/Düsseldorf. The federal government is letting the statutory deadline for a review of the coal phase-out in North Rhine-Westphalia pass without action. The report, intended to assess factors such as security of supply, has not been submitted. Consequently, the government cannot demonstrate by the mandated deadline that sufficient firm capacity will remain available following the shutdown of additional lignite-fired power plant units. Instead, the Ministry of Economic Affairs intends to wait for the results of new tenders for power plants. However, the replacement power plants envisaged for this purpose currently exist largely only in the form of plans and tender documents. At the same time, it remains unclear whether the Niederaußem K and Neurath F and G coal-fired power plants can close in 2030 or if they will be needed as a reserve until the end of 2033.
Coal Phase-Out Decided – Technical Verification Missing
The Coal Phase-Out Act explicitly designates August 15, 2026, as the date for a review. In this review, the federal government must assess factors such as security of supply, electricity prices, and the impact of further plant closures. Additionally, the review is to determine whether three RWE power plant units need to be transferred to a reserve status after March 2030. This specific assessment is intended to clarify whether the accelerated phase-out remains technically justifiable.
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Yet, the federal government is now postponing precisely this decision. The Ministry of Economic Affairs intends to wait for the results of the new capacity auctions first. The second round does not conclude until the end of December, with contract awards scheduled through February 2027. Consequently, the political deadline for the coal phase-out is already set, while the government is still unable to conclusively assess the necessary backup measures.
Replacement for coal-fired power plants getting underway years too late
The long delay regarding replacement capacities is particularly critical. As early as 2022, when the coal phase-out was brought forward, it was clear that new dispatchable power plants would be needed to ensure security of supply during periods of low wind and solar output (so-called Dunkelflauten). Nevertheless, it took nearly four years for the federal government to establish the legal framework for the initial major auctions via the StromVKG (Electricity Generation Capacity Act). As a result, the procurement of crucial replacement capacities is only just beginning.
In 2026, the Federal Network Agency will initially tender two blocks of 4.5 gigawatts of dispatchable capacity. Further capacity tenders are set to follow in 2027. However, winning a contract does not equate to a finished power plant; financing, permitting, construction, and grid connection must still follow. At the same time, the Federal Network Agency projects a significant additional need for dispatchable capacity by 2035. Thus, the replacement for the retiring power plants is by no means secured yet.
Government Flying Blind on Security of Supply
The term “flying blind” is now frequently used within the energy industry to describe the situation. This phrase captures the essence of the political sequencing: existing power plants have fixed shutdown dates, yet the scope, location, and timely availability of replacement capacity remain undecided. Moreover, the Federal Network Agency explicitly links secure supply to the construction of additional dispatchable capacity—a prerequisite that has not yet been met.
While RWE is sticking to the March 31, 2030, phase-out date, CEO Markus Krebber has stated that reserve operations would be possible if mandated and funded by the state. However, for this to happen, the company requires timely clarity regarding personnel, maintenance, fuel supply, and open-cast mining operations. Consequently, policymakers are falling behind their own schedule for the coal phase-out: the shutdown date is set, the replacement capacity is missing, and even the statutory proof of security of supply will not be available by the scheduled review date.
Author: Blackout News
Sources: WDR (14.08.26) – Tabula Rasa (14.08.26) – Energie&Management (12.08.26)