The Federal Network Agency has set the requirement for the winter of 2026/2027 at 7,407 megawatts. This is an increase of 914 megawatts compared to the previous winter. Bottlenecks in the German transmission grid are the decisive factor. At the same time, several domestic reserve power plants are missing from the planning. Consequently, grid operators require up to 2,665 megawatts of additional capacity from abroad. On June 11, the Bundestag also deliberated on 45 new grid expansion projects and modifications to 13 existing ones. With these measures, the Federal Government aims primarily to improve electricity transmission from the north to the south and west.
The Federal Network Agency is increasing the grid reserve for the winter due to critical load flows
The determined requirement is around 14 percent higher than the figure for 2025/2026. Domestic power plants are to cover 4,742 megawatts, while an additional 2,665 megawatts must come from abroad. In the previous winter, this foreign share stood at 1,344 megawatts; it has thus nearly doubled.
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The Federal Network Agency derives these figures from system analyses conducted by transmission system operators. Experts examine the electricity market and subsequently assess the load on individual power lines. A crucial factor is the so-called “N-1 standard,” which requires the grid to continue operating safely even if a key piece of equipment fails. If technical switching measures prove insufficient, redispatch measures are implemented.
Power plant outages increase demand from abroad
For its sensitivity analysis, the agency assumes the unavailability of several power plants. Affected units include Heilbronn 5 and 6, Scholven C, and facilities in Völklingen. Their operators had announced outages for the upcoming winter season, so the agency has prudently excluded this capacity from its calculations. The grid reserve must compensate for the missing output from other sources.
In the critical hour modeled, the need for positive redispatch reaches 24.1 gigawatts. Available German reserve plants supply 4,625 megawatts of this total, while the Gersteinwerk plant contributes another 117 megawatts. An additional 2,665 megawatts must be sourced from foreign power plants. However, several German facilities are unable to feed power into the grid effectively due to local bottlenecks.
Sufficient electricity volume, but insufficient transport capacity
The analysis does not indicate a general shortage of electrical energy; simulated generation covers consumption in every grid usage scenario examined. Germany even shows a calculated net export of 15.5 terawatt-hours. Nevertheless, numerous overloads occur within the transmission grid. Consequently, market availability and grid security must be assessed separately.
Particularly large volumes of electricity are generated in the north and northeast, whereas the main centers of consumption are located further south and west. Furthermore, electricity flows through Germany toward France, Switzerland, Austria, and Italy. Existing power lines cannot always accommodate these trade and generation-related flows. Redispatch therefore alters regional power plant feed-in without increasing the total volume within the electricity system.
Bundestag Considers 45 Additional Grid Projects
The Federal Government’s draft bill aims to expand the Federal Requirements Plan. It encompasses 39 alternating current (AC) measures, three interconnectors, and two direct current (DC) links, as well as one offshore connection line. In addition, 13 previously planned projects are to be modified. The government intends to legally establish the energy-sector necessity of these projects and accelerate the permitting process.
The Federal Government estimates one-off investment costs of approximately €44.65 billion for the new projects. It projects that typical households could face an annual cost increase of €30 to €35, while commercial customers could expect an increase of around €400. However, these costs are expected to be offset by a reduction in interventions required for congestion management. Whether and when this effect materializes depends on actual construction progress.
High Reserve Requirements Persist in the Long Term
The authority has already confirmed a requirement of 8,274 megawatts for the winter of 2028/2029. Modeling indicates that significant grid congestion will persist at that time. Simultaneously, the available conventional power plant fleet is changing. Consequently, Germany remains dependent on dispatchable plants located at grid-critical sites. Cross-border redispatch cooperation also remains crucial.
These rising figures do not constitute a specific forecast of a blackout; rather, they quantify the precautionary measures needed for particularly stressful grid situations. Key factors remain the availability of power plants, cross-border transmission capacities, and rapid interventions by grid operators. Delays in grid expansion increase operational demands. Furthermore, costs associated with redispatch and reserve procurement within the electricity system will persist.
Author: Blackout News
Sources: Bundesnetzagentur (Stand 17.06.26) – Bundesnetzagentur (Stand 17.06.26) – Bundestag (Stand: 17.06.26) – SWK (10.06.26) – ZFK (22.05.26) – Finanznachrichten (22.05.26)