A commentary by our author Klaus Bastian:
Germany’s distinctive approach to energy policy is increasingly becoming a strategic problem for all of Europe. While Berlin pushes ahead with the expansion of renewable energy, technological and economic dependencies on China are growing. Following the previous reliance on Russian natural gas, this creates new risks for Europe’s independence. At the same time, Germany has shut down its nuclear power plants, whereas numerous European neighbors continue to rely on nuclear energy. Added to this are grid bottlenecks and an increasing need for backup power plants from abroad. The consequences therefore extend far beyond the German electricity market, as Europe’s security of supply, industrial competitiveness, and political freedom of action increasingly depend on shared energy policy decisions.
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Germany’s Energy Transition Creates New Dependencies Instead of Independence
Russia’s attack on Ukraine has highlighted the dangers of one-sided energy dependencies. For decades prior, Germany had expanded its reliance on Russian natural gas—a policy that proved to be a critical strategic vulnerability by 2022 at the latest. Yet, as the energy supply system is restructured, highly concentrated international supply chains are emerging once again. This time, the primary beneficiaries are Chinese companies that dominate numerous key technologies.
According to the International Energy Agency, China controls around 85 percent of global production capacity across the solar supply chain; for solar wafers, the Chinese share reaches as high as 95 percent. China also accounts for approximately 80 percent of global battery manufacturing capacity. Added to this is a dominant position in inverters, wind power components, and the processing of critical raw materials. Consequently, Germany and Europe face the risk of new economic dependencies on an authoritarian global power.
The Promised Green Economic Miracle Is Taking Place in China
The energy transition was intended to make Germany a leading industrial hub for climate-friendly technologies. In reality, however, a significant share of the associated value creation is taking place in China. According to the Federal Statistical Office, 88 percent of German solar imports in 2025 originated from the People’s Republic. The import value reached 1.8 billion euros, while German exports fell to 358 million euros. Germany is thus creating sales markets from which foreign manufacturers are benefiting disproportionately.
This trend extends far beyond photovoltaic systems. Chinese companies dominate key stages of production for battery storage systems and electric vehicles. At the same time, their manufacturing capacities for wind turbines, heat pumps, and related components are expanding. European manufacturers, by contrast, must contend with higher energy and production costs. The International Energy Agency therefore anticipates that China will maintain a strong export position. In the baseline scenario, the value of China’s net exports of key energy technologies could reach 375 billion US dollars by 2035.
Germany’s Distinctive Path Undermines Europe’s Independence
Germany shut down its last nuclear power plants in 2023, whereas other European nations are maintaining or expanding their nuclear capacities. France continues to rely on nuclear energy, while Poland is planning new reactors. Simultaneously, the European Commission is advancing a joint strategy for small modular reactors. Member states plan to invest around 241 billion euros in existing and new nuclear power plants by 2050. Germany, however, is not participating in this development with any new construction projects of its own.
Conversely, the German electricity system continues to require substantial support from the interconnected European power grid. For the winter of 2026/2027, the Federal Network Agency confirmed a grid reserve requirement of 7,407 megawatts. Of this total, 2,665 megawatts are to be supplied by power plants in neighboring countries. These capacities serve to mitigate grid bottlenecks rather than directly addressing a general electricity shortage. Nevertheless, the need for them highlights the consequences of delayed grid expansion in Germany. Consequently, Germany’s national decisions also impact power plant planning and grid security in neighboring European states.
China’s technological power threatens Europe’s strategic security
Dependence on China now extends far beyond energy supplies. Rare earth elements—essential for wind turbines, electric motors, and military technologies—are a particular area of concern. China also controls significant portions of the processing of lithium, cobalt, and graphite. According to the International Energy Agency, even a one-month disruption in Chinese battery exports could cause substantial production losses outside China. This would be particularly problematic for the European automotive industry. Thus, energy policy decisions directly affect Europe’s capacity to act in the industrial and security policy spheres.
Suspicions of espionage against former BND President August Hanning have further intensified the debate regarding Germany’s security structures. Investigators arrested him on October 6 on suspicion of attempted high treason and acting as an intelligence agent. His lawyer denies the allegations. No link to the energy transition has been established so far. However, the case underscores the importance of effective security structures when dealing with foreign intelligence services. For this very reason, economic and technological dependencies must also be scrutinized from a security policy perspective.
Europe’s independence requires a common energy strategy
One possible solution would be a pan-European strategy to secure the long-term electricity supply. Nuclear energy could play a larger, shared role in this context without Germany necessarily having to build new reactors of its own. This would require cross-border investments, long-term supply contracts, and European manufacturing capacities. At the same time, fuels and key components would need to be sourced from as diverse a range of supplier countries as possible, given that nuclear energy, too, is not automatically free from international dependencies.
The core of Germany’s unique approach lies in its national commitment to specific technologies and the simultaneous rejection of other forms of generation. While the rest of Europe increasingly views energy supply as a matter of security and industrial policy, Germany continues to pursue its own energy policy priorities. However, the resulting dependencies affect more than just German consumers and companies; they extend across European power grids to industrial supply chains and strategic security interests. The “green economic miracle” is generating significant value in China, whereas Europe has yet to secure its own technological independence. A common European energy strategy would therefore need to better integrate security of supply, industrial competitiveness, and geopolitical risks.
Author: Klaus Bastian – Blackout News
Sources: AP News (10.10.26) – The Guardian (09.10.26) – Financial Times (09.10.26) – Reuters (07.10.236) – Starke-Meinung (09.10.26)