In the first quarter of 2026—from January to March—Germany once again exported more electricity than it imported for the first time since the end of 2023. The Federal Network Agency reported exports of 17.9 terawatt-hours and imports of 15.3 terawatt-hours. Many media outlets hailed this net electricity export as a success for the energy transition. However, a crucial economic metric is missing from the official narrative: the cost balance. An analysis of publicly available market data—based on 15-minute interval values for this period—reveals a negative balance of 141.6 million euros. Yet, for many media outlets, this is not considered newsworthy. (spiegel: 187.05.26)
A Report of Success—Without Central Cost Accounting
At first glance, net exports suggest strength. Germany exported more electricity abroad than it imported. This quantitative balance is accurate; however, it reveals little about the economic benefit. For the decisive factor is not merely the volume of electricity, but rather the price during each trading period.
The Federal Network Agency does not explicitly report this cost balance. While it does publish figures regarding volumes, prices, and market data, these are—in a manner far less likely to grab headlines—tucked away for download. Nor does the agency present a quarterly financial statement itemizing export revenues, import costs, and the resulting net balance. Consequently, anyone wishing to ascertain these specific figures must independently compile and analyze the publicly available 15-minute interval data.
Market Data Reveals a Different Picture
According to publicly available market data, Germany exported 16.604 terawatt-hours of electricity. During the same period, Germany imported 14.908 terawatt-hours. This yields a net export surplus of 1.696 terawatt-hours. However, the official quarterly report cites slightly higher aggregate figures due to differences in its scope and methodology.
The decisive shift becomes apparent only when examining the prices. Although Germany exported a greater volume of electricity than it imported, the financial balance tipped into the negative. Based on spot market valuations, exports generated approximately 1.60 billion euros in revenue. Imports, however, incurred costs of roughly 1.74 billion euros. The bottom line, therefore, is a net deficit of 141.60 million euros.
The “Import” Argument Holds Limited Weight
It is frequently asserted that Germany imports electricity solely because foreign-sourced power is cheaper. While this statement is often true in specific instances, it describes only the market logic applicable to a particular trading interval. Importing electricity may indeed be more cost-effective than dispatching a more expensive domestic power plant.
However, this argument fails to address the quarterly financial balance. It compares the cost of imported electricity against the potential cost of domestic generation; it does not, however, compare import costs against export revenues. That is precisely where the crucial distinction lies.
Germany Often Sells Cheap and Buys Dear
Germany frequently exports electricity during periods of high generation from wind and solar sources. At such times, wholesale market prices tend to fall, allowing neighboring countries to acquire German electricity at a low cost. Consequently, while the volume of exports rises, the resulting revenue remains limited.
When generation from these sources is low, the situation is reversed. Consequently, Germany has to purchase electricity more frequently. This electricity often comes at higher prices. For this reason, the weighted export price stood at 96.47 euros per megawatt-hour, while the weighted import price reached 117.03 euros per megawatt-hour.
Negative Prices Worsen the Bottom Line
The problem becomes particularly evident in the case of negative prices. In such instances, suppliers effectively pay to have electricity taken off their hands. Nevertheless, these volumes still appear in export statistics. For the purpose of cost accounting, however, they count as a financial burden.
Market data indicate that 1.252 terawatt-hours were exported at negative prices. This resulted in a calculated deficit of 30.8 million euros. Simultaneously, Germany imported 0.549 terawatt-hours at negative prices. This provided financial relief to the balance sheet amounting to 12.8 million euros.
A Portion of Exports Held No Positive Market Value
On a net basis, these trading periods still left a financial burden of 18.0 million euros. Added to this was a trading period with a price of exactly zero euros per megawatt-hour. Consequently, a total of 1.254 terawatt-hours flowed abroad at zero or negative prices. This corresponds to 7.55 percent of the total export volume within the analyzed market data.
This figure significantly puts the reported success into perspective. An exported megawatt-hour does not constitute an economic success if it fails to fetch a positive price. The situation becomes even more problematic when prices are negative; while such exports do indeed boost the total export volume, they simultaneously weigh down the financial balance sheet.
The Real Story Lies in the Missing Balance Sheet
The net export of electricity in the first quarter of 2026 represents a genuine development. However, it does not serve as proof of economic success. Official reports typically present the volume balance, yet the financial balance—the cost-benefit analysis—is conspicuously absent.
It is precisely this omission that is significant. A positive financial balance would serve as a powerful argument in support of the publicly touted success story. It is therefore reasonable to surmise that, had a positive financial surplus existed, it would have been communicated far more prominently. While this specific intent cannot be conclusively proven, one fact remains indisputable: this figure was not released to the public.
Consequently, the publicly available market data present a far more sobering picture. Germany exported more electricity, yet sold it—on average—at a lower price than it paid for imported electricity. Moreover, a significant portion flowed abroad at zero or negative prices. The volume balance provides the positive headline; the cost balance reveals the deficit.