The federal government is unable to estimate the future availability and price trends of alternative heating fuels. “Assumptions regarding future developments in demand, availability, and prices for bio-based fuels are subject to significant uncertainty,” the government stated in a response to a parliamentary inquiry by the Green Party, a document seen by AFP on Monday. These fuels play a key role in the government’s new heating law.
During the election campaign, the Union had promised to roll back the “traffic-light” coalition’s heating law. The subsequent “black-red” coalition then passed the Building Modernization Act, which largely eliminates the requirements for heating system replacements. This allows for the continued operation and new installation of oil and gas heating systems in the long term.
To offset this, however, newly installed gas and oil heating systems will be required to run on increasing proportions of biogas, bio-oil, or hydrogen starting in 2029. This so-called “bio-ramp-up” schedule has already been adopted as part of the new heating law. In addition, a “green gas/green heating oil quota” for distributors is set to be approved later this year to make the operation of existing heating systems more climate-friendly. Under these rules, fuel distributors would be required to blend in increasing amounts of biogenic materials and, from 2045 onwards, sell exclusively green gases and oils.
The federal government stated in response to an inquiry from the Green Party that this legislation is currently “in preparation.” However, it noted that anticipated market trends for these fuels could not be factored into the planning: “Current forecasts regarding the potential development of biogenic fuels vary so widely that they cannot be used for the legislative impact assessment.”
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The Bundestag’s Scientific Service, among others, has doubts regarding the availability of green fuels and foresees significant cost risks for consumers. The Federal Government, too, anticipates rising demand—driven by the industrial and transport sectors as well as heating regulations—while the supply outlook remains highly uncertain.
“If the federal government itself admits that it cannot reliably assess trends in the prices, demand, and availability of green gases, it should never have adopted the ‘bio-step’ mechanism and the green gas quota in the first place,” Green Party MP Alaa Alhamwi told AFP. “The federal government must finally face reality: its new heating model creates neither clarity nor planning certainty.”
Author: AFP – pe/ilo – Translated by Blackout News
Sources: AFP Press Portal