Berlin – A new Bertelsmann study reveals a growing skills gap in the German labor market. In 2025, there were approximately 4.57 million workers aged 25 to 64 in Germany without a vocational qualification. This represents an increase of 810,000 since 2017—an average rise of about 100,000 per year. AI and economic weakness are particularly threatening low-skill jobs, leading to rising unemployment, a higher risk of low-wage employment, and limited opportunities for career advancement. Yet, companies continue to struggle to find enough skilled workers and are failing to adequately tap into this pool of available labor.
Workers without a vocational qualification are six times more likely to be unemployed
This means that nearly 14 percent of all employees subject to social security contributions lacked a recognized qualification. The number of employees without a vocational qualification in 2025 was 650,000 higher than in 2019. Compared to 2017, the increase is as much as 810,000. Moreover, this rise continued despite the ongoing demand for skilled labor in the job market.
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In 2025, the unemployment rate for individuals without a vocational qualification stood at 21.3 percent, whereas it was only 3.5 percent for those with vocational training. Furthermore, 617,000 people without vocational training were long-term unemployed; among all unemployed individuals lacking such qualifications, 39 percent had been out of work for at least a year.
Fewer and fewer entry-level jobs available
Researchers analyzed nearly 40 million online job advertisements from the years 2019 to 2025. Last year, however, there were only 0.69 job postings for every unemployed worker in an entry-level role, compared to 4.81 postings for skilled workers. This means there were seven times as many job offers for an unemployed skilled worker as there were for an unemployed entry-level worker.
Workers without vocational qualifications are particularly affected by this trend in standardized roles. In the retail sector, there are approximately 170,000 unemployed entry-level workers compared to 115,000 employed ones; consequently, the unemployment rate for this specific job category reaches 39 percent. In facility security, the rate exceeds 50 percent, while it stands at 31 percent in automotive technology and 28 percent in horticulture. Additionally, AI is increasingly capable of taking over simple tasks in production, administration, and office work.
Partial qualifications can unlock the potential for skilled workers
In the retail sector, skills related to customer advice and store operations are often lacking. Formal barriers to entry are also comparatively low in horticulture and property security. Bertelsmann expert Gunvald Herdin therefore notes: “Depending on the profession, just a few partial qualifications can bridge the gap between a basic support role and a skilled position.” However, advancing in office-based roles or mechanical engineering usually requires more extensive qualifications.
Data from the IAB shows, however, that a lack of formal credentials does not automatically equate to a lack of skills. Only 43 percent of low-skilled workers are employed in basic support roles, while 44 percent are already working as skilled professionals. Another 11 percent perform specialist or expert-level tasks. Consequently, skills assessments, certifications, and work-integrated partial qualifications could help more people secure stable positions as skilled workers. The demand remains high: 36 percent of companies are unable to fill vacancies, and 57 percent are unsuccessfully seeking candidates with dual vocational training.
Author: Blackout News
Sources: Handelsblatt (21.07.26) – Merkur (21.07.26) – Bertelsmann Stiftung (Stand 21.07.26) – Bertelsmann Stiftung (20.07.26)