An international study examines which nations are best equipped to survive global catastrophes. The analysis covers scenarios such as nuclear war, severe pandemics, asteroid impacts, volcanic eruptions, and the large-scale collapse of critical infrastructure, such as a blackout. According to lead author Florian Ulrich Jehn, Germany exhibits significant vulnerabilities in the event of a catastrophe, as its industry, agriculture, and utility systems rely heavily on electricity and complex supply chains. Consequently, Jehn does not classify Germany among the most resilient nations.
Catastrophe scenario: Study examines the collapse of modern supply systems
The study “No Place to Hide?” was published in the journal Global Challenges. Researchers initially reviewed around 3,200 scientific publications regarding global catastrophic risks. Following several stages of selection, this resulted in a systematic analysis of relevant literature. In doing so, the authors consider more than just immediate fatalities or destruction; the crucial factor is whether states can maintain key societal functions in the long term.
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The hazards examined can be categorized into three main groups: a massive reduction in sunlight, global biological threats, and the collapse of technical infrastructure. The third category is particularly significant for Germany, as its power grids, telecommunications, industry, water supply, and logistics sectors are closely interconnected. Consequently, the failure of individual systems can trigger chain reactions in other areas.
Germany’s everyday strength can turn into a vulnerability in an extreme scenario
Under normal conditions, Germany’s highly developed infrastructure offers significant advantages; for instance, its power grid is among the most reliable in Europe. In the event of a catastrophe, however, the frequency of routine power outages is not the only factor that matters. What is crucial is how long key systems can continue to operate without external supplies. It is precisely here that the study identifies structural weaknesses inherent in highly interconnected economies.
Jehn explicitly applies these findings to Germany. While the country boasts stable institutions and a highly productive agricultural sector, it lacks several characteristics often associated with high resilience in the study. Germany is neither geographically isolated nor self-sufficient regarding energy, raw materials, and essential intermediate products. Jehn therefore states his assessment with unusual bluntness: “In any case, Germany is not among the more resilient countries. Without electricity, it is completely helpless.”
According to the study, four factors determine resilience.
Across various scenarios, the researchers identify four recurring advantages: geographic isolation, a high degree of self-sufficiency, stable state institutions, and decentralized structures. Australia possesses a particularly high number of these characteristics and thus often appears comparatively resilient. Nevertheless, the authors explicitly warn against creating a simple ranking, as even Australia remains dependent on international trade for medicines, fuel, and fertilizers.
For Germany, this implies a concrete list of tasks. In the event of a disaster, decentralized power systems, microgrids, black-start capabilities, and independent communication networks could limit damage. Other key elements include stockpiles, robust supply chains, and international emergency agreements. The German government is currently investing billions in emergency power supplies, drinking water security, and civil protection. However, the study takes a more fundamental approach: nations must identify and reduce critical dependencies before a crisis strikes.
Author: Blackout News
Sources: Epoch Times (09.09.26) – Global Challenges (23.08.26) – FernUniversttät Hagen (24.08.26)