The LNG crisis in the Persian Gulf is escalating rapidly. The last tankers to leave the Gulf region before the attacks are expected to reach their ports within the next ten days, while the Strait of Hormuz is effectively blocked by the war and Qatar has already halted its LNG production. This affects a key supplier to the global market, as Qatar accounts for approximately 20 percent of the global LNG supply, and more than 80 percent of Qatari deliveries go to Asia. The decisive risk factor, therefore, lies in the physical loss of supply, not just in higher prices. The consequences range from initial shortages and a lack of alternative deliveries to power outages and production problems in industry and utilities. (ft: 22.03.26)
Pakistan and Bangladesh report initial shortages
Pakistan is among the most vulnerable consumers in Asia. Reuters reported in early March that Pakistan, along with other buyers in the region, was seeking replacement shipments because the war had disrupted deliveries from Qatar. The country is now considered particularly at risk, and recent reports indicate that almost all of Pakistan’s LNG last year came from Qatar. This means a market disruption can very quickly turn into a supply problem. (reuters: 03.03.26)
Bangladesh is also already deep in crisis. According to Reuters, power outages and diesel shortages are already affecting factories, while the government has only been able to secure limited additional supplies. Other recent reports also indicate that universities are closing early and four out of five state-owned fertilizer plants are shut down because gas is being diverted to power plants. This demonstrates how quickly an LNG shortage can impact not only the energy sector but also industry and daily life. In both countries, bottlenecks are already becoming visible in real-world operations.
Taiwan has only a few days’ reserve, Japan relies on nuclear power
At first glance, Taiwan appears better prepared, but it remains highly dependent. According to the Atlantic Council, Taiwan covered around 95 percent of its energy needs through imports in 2025, and before the war, more than 38 percent of its gas supply came from the Middle East. While the government has secured LNG deliveries until the end of April, the island only has 11 days’ worth of gas reserves. If electricity demand rises sharply in the summer, severe shortages are therefore imminent. This would have global repercussions because Taiwan is central to the international semiconductor supply chain (atlanticcouncil: 19.03.26).
Japan, on the other hand, is reacting with a structural shift in strategy. Reuters reported in January that a reactor at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant in Niigata, the world’s largest nuclear power plant, was restarted. At the same time, according to Reuters, Asian buyers are seeking replacement cargoes on the spot market, while competition for spare volumes is intensifying. This gives Japan some breathing room, but the pressure on the regional LNG market is only reduced to a limited extent.
Ras Laffan to Remain Weakened for Years
The real severity of the crisis lies within Qatar itself. Reuters reports that Iranian attacks have crippled 17 percent of Qatar’s LNG export capacity, as two of its 14 LNG tankers in Ras Laffan were damaged. This affects 12.8 million tons per year, and Qatar also anticipates a loss of approximately $20 billion in revenue annually. Repairs are expected to take three to five years, while Qatar Energy has already declared force majeure for long-term supply contracts. Thus, the crisis will not end with the last tankers. It will only then enter its most critical phase.