The promised growth serves as a pacifier for politicians, even though the economic substance is lacking. The forecasts from research institutes also support this narrative, although key assumptions appear shaky. The multi-billion-euro special fund was supposed to trigger dynamism, yet the effect has largely dissipated. At the same time, the country’s competitiveness is suffering, while weak investment undermines any prospect of stability. This development is more reminiscent of statistical expansion than a genuine turnaround.
Growth Without Supporting Structure
Political decision-makers presented the anticipated growth as evidence of successful economic policy, even though real impetus is lacking. The underlying forecasts are largely based on mathematical effects and not on productive output. Even downwardly revised estimates maintain a positive outlook, despite companies signaling caution. This creates the impression that forecasts cater more to political expectations than to economic reality.
The role of the special fund, which was touted as an investment engine, is particularly problematic. In practice, this shadow budget has little leverage, as private actors lack confidence in it. Competitiveness also fails to benefit because structural barriers remain. Without increased investment, any growth narrative loses credibility.
Special Fund as Symbolic Politics
The special fund was intended to modernize infrastructure and strengthen future-oriented industries, but the measurable effects remain marginal. Economists estimate its contribution to growth at a few tenths of a percentage point, and even this estimate seems optimistic. Much of the dynamism stems from calendar effects, since fewer holidays theoretically generate more output. However, such effects are no substitute for sustainable expansion.
Furthermore, private sector investment continues to decline. Capital expenditures are hesitant due to a lack of planning certainty. Competitiveness also suffers from bureaucracy and high costs. Consequently, the special fund also loses its legitimacy as a growth driver, despite political communication suggesting otherwise.
Forecasts Between Wishful Thinking and Reality
The forecasts of leading institutions suggest stabilization, but they underestimate structural deficiencies. These predictions rely heavily on assumptions that have already proven flawed this year. The minimal increase of 0.1 percent illustrates how fragile the situation remains. Nevertheless, many models cling to a positive trajectory despite the lack of reliable indicators.
This discrepancy undermines the credibility of economic advice. Competitiveness continues to decline as international markets become more fiercely contested. Exports are losing importance, while investments are failing to pick up. Under these conditions, growth appears as a mathematical artifact rather than a result of productive strength.
Investment and Competitiveness as Obstacles to Growth
In the long term, the development of investment determines prosperity. Declining capital expenditures reduce production potential, while the labor shortage increases the pressure. Without reforms, the competitiveness of other locations increases, while Germany falls behind. This erosion of competitiveness undermines any hope for sustainable growth.
Although forecasts point to a stable labor market, assumptions dominate here as well. Employment effects arise primarily from demographic shifts and not from economic dynamism. Growth thus remains a mirage, fueled by special funds, optimistic forecasts, and political rhetoric, but without a real foundation. (KOB)