Russia earned more from its crude oil exports up to April 5th than at any time since June 2022. This was driven by sharply rising oil prices, a partial recovery in supply volumes, and higher demand for Russian oil after the war in the Middle East severely disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. At times, this resulted in more than 12 million barrels of crude oil per day from the Middle East being stuck in the Persian Gulf. Simultaneously, Russian tanker inventories dwindled significantly as refineries sought replacements. However, Ukrainian drone attacks on ports in the Baltic and Black Seas dampened the increase, while a ceasefire in the Iran conflict, initially planned for two weeks, immediately put renewed downward pressure on oil prices. (bloomberg: 08.04.26)
Crude oil exports bring billions to Moscow again
Over the past four weeks, the gross value of Russian exports has risen to $2.02 billion per week up to April 5. In the previous period, the figure was $1.79 billion. This represents the highest level for Moscow since June 2022, due to a significant price increase.
The price of Urals crude oil rose for the fifth consecutive week. The average price across the Baltic Sea was $85.73 per barrel, while Black Sea shipments reached $84.07. Pacific oil ESPO averaged $92.11 per barrel. In India, delivery prices even climbed to $113.76 per barrel, further accelerating the surge in revenue.
Drones slow down ports and deliveries
While export volumes showed signs of recovery, the level remained subdued. In the week ending April 5, 28 tankers loaded a total of 20.88 million barrels of Russian crude oil. The previous week, 16.62 million barrels were loaded by 22 ships. Average daily exports thus increased by approximately 610,000 barrels to 2.98 million barrels per day.
The recovery at the port of Primorsk was particularly significant after previous attacks had disrupted operations. No oil flowed from Ust-Luga, however, because drones had caused severe damage to tanks there. A new attack hit the port just as loading operations were about to resume. Therefore, the disruption is likely to last longer, while weather, maintenance, and sanctions are also causing further fluctuations in volume.
Tank storage shrinks, India buys more
Parallel to the lower outflows from Russian ports, floating storage levels fell significantly. In the two weeks leading up to April 5, the amount stored on tankers decreased by approximately 26 million barrels. By Sunday, the volume at sea had fallen to 105 million barrels. In mid-January, the peak had been around 140 million barrels.
India, in particular, increased its purchases of Russian oil. Deliveries to the country rose to 1.9 million barrels per day in March, reaching their highest level since June. This was made possible, in part, by US exemptions for purchases of Russian oil loaded onto tankers before March 12. Shipments to China have recently been smaller than in the record month of February, while many shipments without a final destination are likely to arrive in Asia later.
High Revenues Remain Vulnerable
Despite the boost, Russia’s situation remains fragile. Part of the higher revenues only came about because the Middle East war tightened global supply and drove prices up. Should the ceasefire hold and the Hormuz Canal become navigable again, prices could therefore fall once more.
Furthermore, crude oil exports via key ports remain vulnerable. Attacks on Ust-Luga and other facilities not only affect individual shipments but disrupt the entire logistics chain. Therefore, the Kremlin is not fully benefiting from the price increase. Russian crude oil exports are currently generating significantly more revenue, but this effect is also dependent on crises, disruptions, and political risks.