Baden-Württemberg is heading towards the state elections in March, but the tone has shifted. The Green state government no longer stands for stability, but rather for a record that many see as a contributing factor to the current political imbalance. At the same time, Cem Özdemir needs to generate attention in the southwest, even though he is politically on shaky ground. He needs headlines and is making promises that clash with the party line in order to at least retain voters. He is unlikely to gain any new ones. (nzz: 13.01.26)
Baden-Württemberg: A Green Record Becomes a Liability
In Baden-Württemberg, the automotive industry illustrates how quickly political objectives can clash with employment, orders, and value creation. Winfried Kretschmann began in 2011 with the provocative statement: “Fewer cars are better than more.” Later came the shift to electromobility, but the underlying message remained clear: restraint is seen as progress. This attitude is also reflected in the tone of the Green Party’s Transport Minister, Winfried Hermann, who is “not bothered” by Mercedes’ production relocation to Hungary. In Baden-Württemberg, this now appears as a political concession for industrial downsizing, even if the global crisis didn’t originate in Stuttgart.
Furthermore, energy costs are hitting the region hard because electricity prices are far too high compared to other countries. Companies plan investments over decades, but they need reliable energy and clear regulatory frameworks. The southwest region has not received either to the desired extent. Wind power expansion has fallen short of ambitious targets, and at the same time, some secured generation capacity has disappeared. This increases the risk that companies will relocate projects or not even start them in the first place.
Nevertheless, municipalities are feeling the effects most acutely. In Baden-Württemberg, business tax revenues are plummeting, while social spending is rising and new debt is shrinking the region’s room for maneuver. Stuttgart had to mobilize billions. In 2025, business tax revenues there fell from €1,200 million to €750 million. This makes the automotive industry a multiplier of the crisis, because cutbacks at major brands are having a ripple effect on suppliers and service providers.
Baden-Württemberg before the state elections: Warning signs from schools, transportation, and bureaucracy
While money is scarce, doubts about the government’s competence are growing. In education policy, Baden-Württemberg lost its reputation as a model state because reforms were introduced and later revised. Comparative tests revealed weaknesses, and many parents are experiencing a policy of constant shifts in direction. Furthermore, the relaxed primary school recommendation system seems like an ill-timed experiment when academic performance declines.
At the same time, transportation policy bears a green imprint, which is seen as a disadvantage in rural areas. Winfried Hermann has earned the derisive nickname “Transportation Prevention Minister” because many road projects stalled and the focus on bike paths shifted priorities. When assembly jobs migrated abroad in 2025, he expressed understanding, but companies expect protection for the automotive industry. Meanwhile, the reduction of bureaucracy often remained just a promise; virtually nothing was actually implemented.
Özdemir’s Emergency Course: Promises Contrary to His Own Policy
Despite this, Cem Özdemir is trying to portray himself as a business leader. He’s seeking closer ties with the automotive industry and speaks of the priority of Germany as a business location, claiming he has no other chance. However, his party continues to push for strict climate targets at the federal and EU levels and is pushing for swift bans, which undermines his message at the state level. This makes his course appear as a tactical maneuver primarily intended to generate attention.
Furthermore, Özdemir is using the debt brake as a point of attack, as he sees the CDU as vulnerable on this issue. He stated, “The CDU/CSU have brazenly lied to the public,” and he presents the deficit limit as a symbol of broken promises. However, a loud attack won’t solve any business location problems if the levers of power lie in Berlin and Brussels. Anyone promising relief from energy costs must explain why their own party simultaneously supports decisions that could drive up electricity prices and regulations.
Nevertheless, only a small portion of the electorate will believe this about-face. Many see Baden-Württemberg in a situation that has also resulted from Green Party governance: expensive electricity, slow procedures, conflict-ridden transport policy, and an education agenda lacking a clear direction. This is precisely why Özdemir’s “economy, economy, economy” sounds to critics like a campaign slogan without a solid foundation.
Coalition poker after the election in the southwest
This turns the state election into a vote of confidence. If the CDU is clearly in the lead and simultaneously maintains its distance from the AfD, complicated coalitions remain. Either the CDU and the Greens govern under CDU leadership, or a left-wing alliance is formed. Furthermore, the state parliament could become larger and more complex if several parties enter.
However, each additional parliamentary group increases the number of veto players. The election could therefore produce a government that requires even more compromises and consequently delivers even less. This would be risky for Baden-Württemberg because the automotive industry expects swift decisions, not further rounds of political navel-gazing.
“Green is over!” —and why the statement has political significance
Ultimately, what matters is whether people can expect stability. Kretschmann’s statement, “Fewer cars are better than more,” now stands in contrast to the fear of a decline in prosperity, while energy costs remain high and electricity prices are hindering investment. In this situation, the cry “Green is over!” doesn’t sound like folklore, but rather like the judgment of many disillusioned voters in southwest Germany.