Current research on global CO2 emissions reveals a sobering reality: despite massive climate investments, emissions continue to rise. Despite multi-billion-dollar emissions reduction programs, the persistently high CO2 levels demonstrate that key policy measures are largely ineffective and many strategies for reducing fossil fuels are clearly failing to meet their targets. What is saved at one end of the world is simply emitted at the other. The report “Global Carbon Budget 2025” provides precise data illustrating the continued growth of CO2 pollution and its consequences. This analysis highlights the growing disconnect between climate policy and reality. (tagesschau: 13.11.25)
CO2 emissions reach a new high
The study shows that CO2 emissions have now reached a record level. In 2025, the amount will rise to approximately 38.1 billion tons, confirming a clear emissions record despite billions of dollars being invested in climate protection measures by countries worldwide. The use of fossil fuels continues to increase, with coal, oil, and natural gas gaining ground in all relevant regions. This is measurably accelerating the temperature rise.
Large economies are contributing significantly to this. The US has recorded an increase of 1.9 percent, India 1.4 percent, and China and the EU 0.4 percent each. The international research team led by Pierre Friedlingstein assesses the situation as extremely critical. The available data leads to the conclusion that the 1.5-degree target now appears virtually unattainable.
Record Concentrations in the Atmosphere
At the same time, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere continues to rise. At 425.7 ppm, the world is approaching a new peak, continuing the trend of the previous year. This development exacerbates the climate crisis, as natural ecosystems increasingly lose their role as carbon sinks.
Forests and oceans are absorbing less CO2 because their capacity is rapidly approaching. Researchers calculate that around 8 percent of the atmospheric increase is attributable to the declining capacity of these sinks. Between 2015 and 2024, the terrestrial ecosystem will lose about a quarter of its absorption capacity, while the oceans will lose almost 8 percent. This further exacerbates the global temperature rise.
Progress by individual countries is insufficient.
The report identifies 35 countries that have managed to reduce their emissions despite economic growth. While these countries provide evidence that economic dynamism and climate protection can be compatible, the effect remains small on a global scale. The progress made does not offset the rising global CO2 emissions.
Europe, Australia, Israel, New Zealand, South Korea, and Taiwan are among the successful regions. However, while emission reductions are visible there, fossil fuel consumption is growing significantly faster in other regions. This situation demonstrates that even ambitious programs are barely sufficient to curb the global emissions record.
Forests are stabilizing slightly – but the risk remains high
The report identifies some progress in land use. Deforestation is declining noticeably, particularly in the Amazon. Julia Pongratz emphasizes that deforestation rates have reached their lowest level since 2014, offering a glimmer of hope. Nevertheless, the forests remain extremely vulnerable. The devastating fires of 2024 vividly demonstrate how quickly even minor setbacks can jeopardize stabilization.
The combination of drought, political conflicts, and growing energy demand is increasing the risk. These factors are further accelerating global warming as the natural carbon sink diminishes.
A critical conclusion on climate policy
The overall analysis shows that global CO2 emissions continue to rise unabated despite all investments. The climate crisis is intensifying because structural problems are deeply rooted and the dependence on fossil fuels persists. The figures show that while climate protection programs are generating progress, they are not bringing about a turnaround. Without fundamental reforms, the increase in CO₂ emissions will continue and approach further record emission levels.