Germany is reporting record wind and solar output, but the overall impact on the system remains small – and this is precisely where the reckoning with the reality of the energy transition begins. “A lot built, little delivered” describes the situation better than any celebratory announcement, because expansion alone doesn’t solve the supply problem. At the same time, emergency interventions in the grid and subsidies from the federal budget are increasing, further pushing up costs for households and industry.
22 Percent – The Reckoning with the Overall Balance
The decisive factor is total final energy consumption from electricity, heating, and transportation, because this is where the energy transition will be determined. In 2024, the share of renewables was around 22 percent, and according to preliminary analyses, this figure hardly changed in 2025. Germany is thus below the EU average, while Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Bulgaria achieve higher rates.
Around 50 percent of final energy consumption is for heating, about 25 percent for transportation, and only around 25 percent for electricity. Therefore, focusing solely on electricity share distorts the overall picture. According to Fraunhofer ISE, renewables will cover around 55.9 percent of electricity consumption in 2025, but this percentage is almost identical to the 2024 level. In the heating sector, the share has stagnated at around 18 percent for years, and in transportation, it remains below 7 percent, meaning that these two major consumption sectors are making little progress.
Capacity is not quantity – and time is the key
Between 2020 and 2025, Germany added approximately 64 to 72 gigawatts of new wind and solar power capacity. In terms of installed capacity, this roughly corresponds to 45 to 50 former German nuclear power plants. Nevertheless, the share of renewables in total final energy consumption increased by only about three percentage points during the same period. This gap will be revealed in the next billing cycle, because installed capacity does not guarantee a reliable supply volume.
The crucial factor is the difference between installed capacity and the actual amount of electricity generated, because the installed megawatts only represent the theoretically possible peak output. What matters is the energy delivered, which must also be available at the right time. Solar power primarily delivers in the summer, while demand is higher in the winter, resulting in seasonal gaps, and billing is particularly harsh during peak hours.
53 emergency interventions per day – grid operation as a constant crisis
The electricity grid is becoming a bottleneck because generation and transmission are not growing synchronously. Since 2020, the number of redispatch measures for stabilization has almost tripled, and the trend continues upward. In 2020, there were nearly 6,798 interventions, rising to 12,633 in 2022 and around 17,297 in 2024. By 2025, 19,318 emergency interventions were recorded, an average of 53 per day, to prevent power outages.
Costs are rising in parallel, which is why price pressure is increasing despite grid expansion. In the third quarter of 2024, costs for grid congestion management amounted to €608 million, rising to around €667 million in the third quarter of 2025. In the north, wind power is curtailed due to a lack of transmission lines, while in the south, gas-fired power plants are ramped up or imported electricity is used to compensate, resulting in double the burden. As a result, Germany pays compensation for the shutdowns and simultaneously for expensive replacements, even though alternative plants are available, and this bill ultimately ends up being passed on to electricity customers.
Billions in Subsidies and an Import Trend – The Bill Rises
Electricity prices are increasingly tied to system costs, while the government is taking countermeasures. For 2026, the federal government plans subsidies of around €31 billion, including for the EEG account, grid fees, electricity tax, electricity compensation, and industrial electricity prices. Without these funds, many prices for households and industry would be virtually unaffordable, but the structural causes remain. However, the taxpayer foots the bill for this relief.
The external balance has also reversed, which is why dependence is growing. Until 2023, Germany was frequently a net electricity exporter, and in 2017 the export surplus was around 60 terawatt-hours. Since the shutdown of its nuclear power plants, Germany has been a net importer; in 2024, approximately 28 terawatt-hours were imported, and in 2025, around 22 terawatt-hours. This costs more than €2 billion per year, even though installed renewable energy capacity has reached record levels.
Five trillion by 2045 – and the social breaking point
The total costs often remain politically vague, but studies cite enormous figures. Investigations commissioned by the Chamber of Industry and Commerce estimate the energy transition will cost around five trillion euros by 2045. If renovations to buildings and industry are included, the sums rise further, putting pressure on investment and competitiveness. (KOB)