Brussels – The EU aims to completely phase out Russian gas by 2027 at the latest, yet the necessary replacement supplies have not yet been reliably secured. Europe’s gas storage facilities are currently only about 67 percent full; at the same time last year, the figure was nearly 80 percent. Furthermore, the EU will need to procure additional volumes from the international LNG market, where it faces competition from Asian buyers and other importing regions. The European Court of Auditors has therefore warned of weaknesses in the implementation of REPowerEU and potential consequences for security of supply.
Replacement supplies are increasingly dependent on the global LNG market
Since 2021, the EU has sharply reduced its imports of Russian gas. At that time, around 45 percent of imports came from Russia; by 2025, that share stood at approximately twelve percent. The volume of imports fell from around 152 billion to 36 billion cubic meters. However, following the complete phase-out, these volumes must be permanently replaced by other suppliers.
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Norway, the USA, and other LNG suppliers have already stepped in to cover a significant portion of the shortfall. However, there are limits to how much additional LNG can be procured and when. Production capacities, tankers, terminals, and long-term supply contracts impose constraints. Consequently, Europe’s replacement supply relies more heavily than before on a global market where there is international demand for those same volumes.
Low consumption has stabilized supply so far
The reduction in Russian supplies was not achieved solely through new sources. Several mild winters lowered heating demand. At the same time, high gas prices led to reduced consumption among households and businesses. The Court of Auditors therefore points out that the decline in imports from Russia is not attributable exclusively to REPowerEU.
Industrial sectors, in particular, are consuming less gas today than before the energy crisis. While this stabilized supply, it also had economic consequences; parts of energy-intensive production were scaled back or relocated. Therefore, persistently low gas consumption cannot automatically be taken as proof that a sufficiently secure replacement supply is in place.
Low storage levels increase risks to the gas supply
The situation heading into the coming winter exacerbates this problem. European gas storage levels are significantly below those of the previous year. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts could drive up the cost of additional LNG shipments or delay their arrival. Consequently, a cold winter would rapidly increase European demand and intensify competition for available gas supplies.
Nevertheless, the EU is sticking to its phase-out plan. Russian LNG imports are set to cease completely by early 2027, with pipeline gas imports following no later than autumn 2027. However, the regulation includes an emergency clause for cases of severe supply shortages, acknowledging that a lack of supply volumes could jeopardize the energy system.
The crucial issue, therefore, goes beyond the mere financing of REPowerEU. Europe requires sufficient gas from alternative sources once Russian supplies are completely cut off. New pipelines, LNG terminals, and investments are only effective if adequate volumes are actually available. Without a secure alternative supply, Europe’s dependence on the global LNG market will increase. A cold winter or international supply disruptions could then directly lead to fresh shortages and sharp price spikes.
Author: Blackout News
Sources: Reuters (09.09.26)