A study published in Switzerland on July 12, 2026, quantifies the impact of a new nuclear power plant from 2050 onwards. BAK Economics conducted the analysis on behalf of the umbrella business association Economiesuisse. The study was prompted by the foreseeable decommissioning of existing reactors and rising electricity demand. The EPR model promises annual value creation of 1.6 billion francs and 2,905 jobs. However, it requires an investment of 17.25 billion francs. In addition, the state would need to contribute around 625 million francs annually. Consequently, cost overruns and delays could significantly worsen the financial outlook.
New reactor aims to narrow the winter electricity gap
Switzerland’s four reactors currently supply around 36 percent of the country’s electricity. They also account for nearly half of domestic winter power generation. With a service life of 60 years, the plants would be taken off the grid gradually between now and 2044. At the same time, electrification could increase electricity consumption by around a third by 2050.
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The study therefore models an EPR with a capacity of 1.63 gigawatts and an operating lifespan of 60 years. The reactor is projected to supply 12.1 terawatt-hours of electricity annually, with 6.7 terawatt-hours generated during the winter half-year. This would allow it to cover approximately 15 percent of expected winter consumption; however, Switzerland would need to export some of the surplus generated in the summer.
Value creation depends on state support
BAK Economics projects domestic value creation of 7.4 billion francs during the construction phase. Ongoing operations are expected to generate an additional 1.2 billion francs annually. The model also factors in around 240 million francs resulting from lower electricity costs and improved export opportunities. Furthermore, the federal government, cantons, and municipalities could collect approximately 95 million francs in direct taxes.
In the base scenario, the levelized cost of electricity stands at 115.50 francs per megawatt-hour. However, the study assumes market revenue of only 64 francs. Consequently, a support mechanism would need to cover the 51.50-franc-per-megawatt-hour gap. Based on the projected output, this amounts to roughly 625 million francs per year. Thus, the market would cover only 55 percent of the calculated costs.
Other studies place strict limits on economic viability
An ETH-PSI analysis therefore comes to a more cautious conclusion. Under today’s conditions, new reactors based on these models are not worthwhile. The state would have to take on subsidies and part of the financing risks. In addition, capital costs would have to fall from eight to five percent. With construction costs of 12,000 francs per kilowatt, the new building fails in three out of four models. This means that the calculated added value remains dependent on the actual project costs.
In June 2026, the Swiss Parliament decided to lift the ban on new construction that had been in effect since 2017. However, an alliance is collecting signatures for a referendum. This requires at least 50,000 valid signatures by October 8, 2026. In addition, no major Swiss energy supplier has yet announced a specific new construction project. The study therefore describes a possible scenario and not a finished investment decision.
Author: Blackout News
Sources: Badische Zeitung (13.07.26) – SRF (13.07.26) – BAK Economic Intelligence (Stand: 15.06.26) – ETH Zürich (29.06.26)