Berlin, July 25, 2026. The European gas price has risen to nearly 63 euros per megawatt-hour. At the same time, Germany’s gas storage facilities were only 45.7 percent full. The escalation of the US-Iran war is disrupting LNG shipments from the Gulf region. Furthermore, Europe and Asia are competing more intensely for available supplies. New offshore wind farms could reduce reliance on gas, but high costs are curbing investment. Consequently, households and businesses face the threat of higher energy prices in the event of a cold winter.
High gas prices slow the refilling of storage facilities
On July 24, the benchmark TTF price stood at 61.93 euros per megawatt-hour. At the end of June, the cost of gas had briefly been around 42 euros. The market thus saw an increase of nearly 50 percent within just a few weeks. Moreover, prices were once again approaching the peaks seen at the start of the Iran war.
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German gas storage facilities reached a fill level of 45.7 percent on July 25. However, the European average stood at 54.82 percent. A statutory target of 80 percent applies to most German storage facilities by November 1. INES considers a level of 76 percent to be technically achievable. However, high gas prices currently make storing gas economically unattractive.
Offshore wind power grows, but investment is lacking
German offshore wind power initially saw strong growth in the first half of 2026. A total of 84 turbines with a capacity of 1,077 megawatts were connected to the grid. This raised the installed capacity in the North and Baltic Seas to 10.8 gigawatts. In addition, another 22 turbines with a capacity of 323 megawatts are already installed at sea, though they are not yet feeding electricity into the grid.
Final investment decisions have been made for new projects totaling 2.6 gigawatts. While other projects amounting to 17.5 gigawatts have been awarded contracts, the investors have not yet committed. As early as August 2025, a tender for new North Sea sites failed to attract any bids. High construction costs and expensive financing are making the economics less favorable. Consequently, the industry is calling for government-backed minimum and maximum revenue guarantees.
Gas Prices Drive Up Electricity and Heating Costs
High gas prices place a burden on more than just households with gas heating systems. As fuel costs rise, gas-fired power plants also drive up the cost of generating electricity. This impact is particularly pronounced during periods of low wind and solar output. Furthermore, the surge in prices can increase production costs for energy-intensive businesses. Consequently, gas prices could once again fuel inflation.
According to INES, an average or mild winter would be manageable despite low gas storage levels. However, an exceptionally cold winter could lead to supply shortages starting in February 2027. This scenario is based on the temperatures recorded in 2010. INES projects supply deficits of up to nine terawatt-hours per month under these conditions. On individual days, the shortfall could amount to as much as two terawatt-hours of gas.
Author: Blackout News
Sources: Welt (25.07.26) – Allgäuer Zeitung (25.07.26) – Reuters (24.07.26) – Stiftung Offshore Windenergie (21.07.26) – INES (07.07.26)