Warsaw/Brussels – Poland’s economic growth accelerated again in the second quarter of 2026. According to preliminary data released on August 13, real GDP rose by 3.8 percent year-on-year. By 2025, Poland had already reached a nominal GDP of €922.9 billion, securing sixth place within the European Union. Key drivers behind this include consumer spending, investment, the industrial sector, and the influx of European funding. Additionally, foreign companies are strengthening the industrial base through new plants and the relocation of production. However, the state budget remains a critical weakness; the EU Commission projects a deficit of 6.5 percent of GDP for 2026 and a continuing rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio. For Poland, this ascent translates into greater economic weight, even though per capita prosperity remains below the EU average.
Poland’s economic growth is shifting the balance of power within the EU
In 2025, only Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands generated a higher nominal GDP within the EU. Poland thus ranked well ahead of Belgium, Sweden, Ireland, and Austria. However, precision is required when comparing the figures with Switzerland. The latest Eurostat dataset puts Switzerland’s figure at 925.9 billion euros, while Poland trailed slightly behind at 922.9 billion euros. Since Switzerland is not part of the EU, however, Poland’s sixth-place ranking within the Union remains unaffected.
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Moreover, this dynamic extends far beyond a mere change in rankings. Poland’s economy grew by 3.6 percent in real terms in 2025 and expanded by another 3.5 percent in the first quarter of 2026. During that period, domestic demand rose by 3.7 percent, while private consumption grew by 3.3 percent. Gross fixed capital formation increased by 2.4 percent at the same time. Poland’s economic growth accelerated further in the second quarter, reaching 3.8 percent. However, foreign trade presents a mixed picture. From January to June, exports rose by 4.6 percent, but imports increased by 5.1 percent, resulting in a trade deficit of 15.7 billion zlotys. Nevertheless, the European Commission projects growth of 3.5 percent for the year as a whole.
German investments boost industrial expansion
Poland is also gaining significant traction as an investment location. In the 2026 AHK business climate survey, the country ranked second among 14 locations in Central and Eastern Europe. For 81 percent of the German companies surveyed, growth potential is a key reason for investing there. Furthermore, 94.5 percent of German investors would choose Poland again. More than a third plan to expand their investments in the country due to geopolitical shifts. Good infrastructure, a dense supplier network, and proximity to Germany are reinforcing this trend.
This development is particularly evident in the cases of Miele and MAN. Miele has agreed to relocate additional segments of its washing machine production from Gütersloh to Ksawerów, Poland; according to the company, up to 700 jobs in Gütersloh are affected by this move. Meanwhile, MAN plans to invest around 1.2 billion euros to expand its plant in Niepołomice, near Kraków, by 2038. Additional production stages for the next generation of trucks are scheduled to be established there by 2030. At the same time, IG Metall is warning against planned relocations from Munich to Poland. The union believes this puts up to 2,000 jobs in Munich at risk in the long term. Such decisions boost industrial value creation in Poland, yet their specific contribution to current GDP growth cannot be quantified in isolation.
High deficits remain the flip side of this rise
However, this economic ascent has a fiscal downside. The European Commission estimates Poland’s government deficit at 7.3 percent of GDP for 2025. For 2026, it projects a figure of 6.5 percent, despite the initial stages of fiscal consolidation. At the same time, the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise from 59.7 percent in 2025 to 64.5 percent. By 2027, this could reach 68.3 percent. Furthermore, the Commission forecasts inflation of 3.6 percent for 2026. Consequently, a portion of this robust growth is occurring alongside rapidly rising government debt.
As a result, a gap in prosperity remains vis-à-vis the leading EU nations. Adjusted for purchasing power, Poland’s GDP per capita in 2025—according to Eurostat—was still roughly 10 to 20 percent below the EU average. The size of the overall economy should not, therefore, be equated with the standard of living of individual households. Nevertheless, this process of catching up is reshaping Europe’s industrial landscape. Poland’s economic growth is driven by domestic demand, EU funds, investment, and an expanding industrial base. The relocation of German production facilities is a visible aspect of this trend, though by no means the sole cause. It is precisely this combination of factors that explains why Poland is gaining economic weight more rapidly than many longer-standing EU members.
Author: Blackout News
Sources: Bankier (13.08.26) – Eurostat (11.08.26) – EuroNews (10.08.26)